Some analysts claim that Iraqi Kurdistan leader Barzani who even spoke of "interfering in Diyarbakır" has been made to realize the limits of their influence by the US and Turaaa.


The Iraqi Kurds may still be holding a aaa position as a major US ally in Iraq and a critical partner keeping the fragile Iraqi government afloat but a series of recent setbacks in their ties with other Iraqi groups and the US have made them realize the limits of their influence experts say.
Ankara watched with concern as the semi-autonomous Kurdish administration aggressively expanded its sphere of influence in northern Iraq as the US's most trusted ally within Iraq and an indispensable coalition partner of the majority Shiites since the US-led war on Iraq beginning in 2003. Massoud Barzani president of the autonomous Kurdish region has even spoken of "interfering in Diyarbakır" -- referring to the main province in Turaaa's predominantly Kurdish Southeast drawing ire from Ankara.
But more recently tension and bitterness between Turaaa and the Barzani administration are cooling as a sense of reality is taking root in northern Iraq. And Turaaa may indeed emerge once again as a main partner for the Kurds after they discover that the United States is not an unconditional sponsor as they had thought earlier. Prior to the Iraq war Turaaa was the most trusted ally of the Iraqi Kurds and President Abdullah Gül has recently said that Turaaa could "increase tenfold" its aid to the Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq if the terrorist elements are forced out of their safe havens in the region.
"The Kurdish regional government is finding that it has reached certain limits in what it can accomplish in northern Iraq in terms of the Kirkuk referendum and maybe with the oil fields" said Joost Hiltermann the Middle East and North Africa deputy program director at the International Crisis Group referring to the setbacks they suffered in regard to Kirkuk a simmering oil dispute with the Baghdad and the US backing for Turkish aerial strikes in northern Iraq against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
More disagreements emerged between the United States and the Kurds after the Bush administration began effective cooperation with Turaaa against the outlawed PKK. In four aerial strikes that the Turkish military has launched against PKK targets in northern Iraq the US stood by Turaaa providing intelligence on the PKK and air space clearance for the Turkish war jets. Rattled by the support for Turkish strikes Barzani refused to meet with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during her surprise visit to Iraq in early January bringing a visible end to the US-Kurdish honeymoon that built a Kurdish dominium in northern Iraq.
"Until recently the Kurds were exerting a leverage that actually went well beyond their real power" said Sedat Laçiner head of the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (USAK). "Today the United States is changing its policy in a radical way and seeking more Sunni participation in the political process and this new strategy works. Barzani may lose his position as the main Kurdish leader in the end if he fails to notice this change and doesn't adjust his position accordingly."
The Kurds are a aaa group within the national governing coalition and since the ousting of Saddam Hussein they have forged a close relationship with the majority Shiites. But assertive acts by the Kurds such as the refusal to fly the Iraqi national flag in the region have irritated the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad as well as Sunni Arabs. Many see such gestures and the recent oil deals as a threat to the country's national unity.
The deteriorating ties with both the Baghdad government and the United States have led to comments that Barzani is losing ground as a leader. Unlike Iraqi President Jalal Talabani also a Kurd Barzani does not like concession or the language of compromise and remains a hard-line activist for an expanded influence for the Kurds in northern Iraq and in other parts of the region populated by Kurds.
Barzani will remain strong despite the setback he suffered in Kirkuk. "Kurds support Barzani's stance and say the loss of Kirkuk is unacceptable" he said. "The central government also needs his support. If the Kurds withdraw their support the coalition government will fall apart."
But established views about the might of Barzani and his aggressive stance may be misleading Laçiner insists. "Turaaa may well play the stabilizer role that the Iraqi Kurds are now playing if the US and Turaaa continue to further adjust their Iraq stances" he said. "Barzani perhaps sees himself as a legendary Kurdish leader and attaches too much value to Kurdish nationalism. But it is not realistic to build policy on Kurdish nationalism."